Spring 2026
Rollins Data, Disease Expertise Responds Quickly to Launch Interactive Vaccine Resource
Rob Spahr
Declining vaccine coverage in the United States has been a persistent concern for public health experts and health care providers for more than a decade. These concerns have intensified since the COVID-19 pandemic due to growing anti-vaccine sentiment and the proliferation of vaccine misinformation and disinformation.
When the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s newly overhauled Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) voted in December to end universal recommendations for birth doses of the hepatitis B vaccine, it galvanized Rollins vaccine researchers into action.
“There has been a changing attitude toward vaccination in this country for some time now. But with the ACIP’s decision, these attitudes are now driving vaccine policymaking at the highest levels. When we realized that these actions were being taken without consideration of the effect, we decided that we had to do something,” says Benjamin Lopman, PhD, professor of epidemiology and global health at the Rollins School of Public Health.
Visualizing the Health and Human Costs of Declining Vaccination
Within weeks, Rollins researchers launched VaxImpactMap.
The interactive tool uses epidemiological models and state-level data to project the additional disease cases, hospitalizations, deaths, missed workdays, and health care costs that would occur at different levels of declining vaccination coverage for three major vaccine-preventable diseases: rotavirus (diarrheal disease), pertussis (whooping cough), and pneumococcal disease (serious bacterial infection).
“We’ve been working on modeling vaccines for years, so we were not working from scratch. But what we did with some urgency was pull together the state-level data and the mapping visualization to launch this quickly. Each of these vaccines and the pathogens they aim to prevent are unique, so it does take expertise in the diseases and analytical infrastructure to be able to do this,” says Lopman, adding the researchers plan to add more vaccine-preventable diseases to the tool in the future.
VaxImpactMap’s ability to provide state-level projections is important because impacts vary across states due to different factors like the current levels of vaccine coverage and the size of the infant population.
“This tool gives people an understanding of the tangible estimates of the harm that will be caused by declines in coverage and the real impacts it could have in their states, their communities, and even their families,” Lopman says.
Rotavirus
In states with high vaccine coverage, like Massachusetts, there will be approximately 46 additional hospitalizations and $400,000 in associated hospitalization costs per 100,000 children 5 years old and younger in 2030. In states with medium levels of current coverage, like Missouri, there will be 84 additional hospitalizations and $700,000 of hospitalization costs per 100,000 children in 2030.
Pertussis
A 20% decline in vaccination coverage among infants would result in an additional 2,768 hospitalizations and 27 deaths among U.S. children under the age of 15, and $183 million in costs nationally in 2030. And states with the highest current coverage—such as Texas, Tennessee, and California—would be most affected.
Shutterstock.com/Kateryna Kon
Pneumococcal Disease
Coverage decline would result in the greatest impact due to the severity of invasive pneumococcal disease. A 20% decline of vaccination coverage among infants would result in an additional 3,844 hospitalizations and 142 deaths among U.S. children under age 5, and $81 million in costs in 2030. And even at a 1% decline over one year, highly populated states like California and New York show a projected increase in deaths.
Rolling Back Progress
In January, acting Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Director Jim O’ Neill signed a decision memorandum ordering the CDC to adopt an updated vaccine schedule for the United States. The new schedule removed rotavirus and five other diseases from the list of universally recommended vaccines. In March, a federal judge granted a motion for a preliminary injunction filed by the American Academy of Pediatrics against the reduced childhood immunization schedule and the ACIP overhaul, invalidating all votes made by the committee since. The Department of Health and Human Services announced plans to appeal the decision.
The rotavirus vaccine prevents approximately 40,000-45,000 hospitalizations per year, Lopman says, adding he fears these kinds of changes in vaccine policy will result in lower vaccine coverage and roll back the incredible progress that’s been made protecting American kids for the last two decades.
Rotavirus Fact Sheet Pertussis Fact SheetPneumococcal Disease Fact Sheet
The Rollins team that developed VaxImpactMap includes Robert Bednarcyzk, PhD, assistant professor of epidemiology and global health; PhD student Mahmud Sheku; data scientist Connor Van Meter; and communications specialist Emilia Grill. They hope the tool will become a trusted resource that public health decision-makers and anyone interested in the downstream impacts of changes to vaccination coverage will continue utilizing well beyond the crisis of the moment.
“We realize that simply putting data in front of people is not going to be sufficient in reversing the trends in vaccine coverage. This is one tool in that effort, but it is going to take a lot more than just one tool,” Lopman says. “So, the other hope for VaxImpactMap is that it helps to promote the expertise we have here at Rollins. We hope that when groups around the country are making vaccine policy decisions, they think of Rollins as a trusted source to come to for technical expertise and a rational approach to policymaking.”
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