We’re Going to Pass 1.5 Degrees of Warming. Now What?

In 2015, 195 countries convened at the United Nations (UN) Climate Change Conference in Paris and agreed that it was time to do something about the warming planet.

They signed the Paris Agreement, an international treaty committed to keeping global temperatures well below 2 degrees Celsius higher than before the industrial revolution. The agreement set a goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees.

A new UN report says this is most likely no longer possible—we will almost certainly overshoot the 1.5-degree goal within the next few years. And that would have disastrous health effects.

“Climate risks to human health and well-being increase with every bit of additional warming over 1.5 degrees, including deaths and illness from extreme heat, food and water insecurity, infectious diseases, and increasingly severe disasters,” says Yang Liu, PhD, a Rollins researcher who studies the health impacts of climate change and extreme weather.

Why Will We Pass the Limit?

The world is already, on average, over 1.4 degrees Celsius warmer than pre-industrial times.

How close we are to the threshold set by the Paris Agreement is measured over a period of many years. So, a few months or even an entire year that is 1.5 degrees hotter does not mean we’ve overshot yet. This is important because over the past handful of years, many months have already been at or over the limit.

But global temperatures keep warming because, despite the treaty, greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise. The U.S., historically the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitter, withdrew from the Paris Agreement in 2025. The UN called out how this hurt climate progress in a report last year.

What Happens Now?

Our priority now, according to the UN report, is to limit how far above the 1.5 degree threshold we reach, and bring global temperature back down as quickly as possible.

The report discusses different methods of carbon dioxide removal and storage like reforestation and geoengineering. Liu and the UN agree that we must also rapidly reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

To do that, according to Liu:

• Governments can focus on things like accelerating renewable energy production, energy efficiency, and setting standards that prioritize public transportation and protect forests.
• Industry can aggressively control their methane emissions and reduce their fossil fuel use.

“These near-term measures are especially important because they can slow the magnitude of warming and reduce future climate-related harm. Importantly, many also produce immediate public health co-benefits,” says Liu.

“Reducing fossil fuel combustion improves air quality, and public transit can increase physical activity. More efficient buildings can provide healthier indoor environments. Mitigation should therefore be viewed not simply as preventing future warming, but as an investment in healthier and more resilient communities today.”

But there is still a lot that we don’t know. Will governments and industry cooperate? What role will AI play, either in speeding up climate change with its immense energy needs or helping unlock some new solution to the crisis?

Avoiding the worst potential outcomes of climate change requires everyone’s effort.